Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas elections…

Nope, I don’t have up to the minute results from the municipal elections in the three northern states. I’ve been trying to load the preliminary results from Chihuahua, but there seems to be a problem… as there have been with the ballot boxes. The Governor is saying there aren’t any problems… which means that there are problems. I expect a PAN sweep (though also expect evidence of PAN cheating to emerge), but PRI might do better than expected. Early results (2 to 6% of ballots counted) from the U. of Chihuahua site show PRI taking about 20 or the 22 districts and municipalities.

In Zacatecas, PAN is complaining that the PRD photographing one of their candidates buying votes was a dirty trick I’m expecting PRD to continue to hold the state, despite a nasty internal fight . There have been some reports of election day violence in Fresnillos (where the PT is winning, according to the SREP count) and I haven’t a clue what’s going on right now (10 P.M., local time): it looks as if PRI, PRD and PAN are about evenly split, with PT (nationally a PRD ally) holding the balance of the 23 districts.

In Durango, Archbishop Héctor González Martínez told the faithful that it was a mortal sin not to vote. 48% of the state is expected to put their souls in peril. It appears the PRI (and the PRI-Green alliance) will win about 70% of municipal and deputy elections.

Updates when I find out anything.

In Chihuahua El Heraldo is reporting an abstention rate of up to 65%, which they blame on dissatisfaction with the Federal Government and rejection of the military “war” on drugs. PREP results show PRI taking about 2/3rds of municipal elections and seats in the state legislature. PRD may have carried two or three municipalities, and maybe a sindico or two (a word I’ve never come up with a good translation for… community financial officer — not every state has them) and but wasn’t expected to do even that well.

In Durango, the PRI-PRI coaltion is carrying just about everything (though the winners are the mortal sinners… turnout being about 50% — the conventional wisdom is that the faithful vote PAN, so this could indicate a rejection of the Calderón administration). The PRD didn’t carry anything.

Zacatecas is still confusing… PRD is ahead in both municipal and delegation elections… but there is that weird Fresnillo district.

From what I can tell, there was — or wasn’t (the reports are conflicting) — an attempt to take the PT candidate hostage, which is all the more interesting, since he is the brother of former PRD leader Arturio Montiel. Most of the PREP count is completed, or nearly completed, except for this one district. Something weird is going on… but then, it’s a Mexican election, so something is always weird.

I’m still not sure what it all means, but it It looks like PAN didn’t do as well as one would expect, and PRI is still a power at least at the state level. El Heraldo may be right, that this is a rejection of Calderón’s heavy-handed approach to social problems.

For what it’s worth, the PRI fell to the third party in the 2006 National elections, and informally have allied with PAN in the Federal Congress. Where the two are competitive, PRI is more or less the “left” or center-left. Whether these three states follow the lead of Coahuila, where PRI has become the “progressive” party, I don’t know.

But, if anything is clear it’s that the reports of the demise of the PRI were extremely premature.

PAN is probably still the largest party (in Durango and Chihuahua, PRI ran a fusion ticket with Nuevo Aliaza, though PRI also ran single party candidates in most districts; PRD ran fusion tickets with Convergencia in Zacatecas and Chihuahua), but was the biggest “loser”… David, in his comment below, notes that Jerez, Zacatecas switched from PAN to PRD… boy did it ever move left. Even the Maoist PT beat the crap out of them:

Municipal results: Jerez

State Assembly results